thinking about Naidu on Piketty and universal basic income

Multiple sources have no referred me to Suresh Naidu’s article in the “After Piketty” anthology. It’s now high on my to-read list.

A key insight from the secondary reviews is the reminder that however capital is supplied (whether it be in liquidity, or capital “goods” like factory equipment, or land, or today in intellectual property), they are priced according to the expectation of future return on ownership. Given the diverse forms that capital can take, “expected return on future ownership” may very well be what distinguishes capital from consumer goods.

Capital accumulation is then, at its most basic, the process of strategic investment to maximize return across lots of asset classes.

Let’s assume for now the most cynical possible view of political economy, in which all political agendas are just rallying will in favor of this or that kind of capital, pushing for the revaluation of capital or policies that change its distribution. In many ways, this is consistent with Bourdieusian social theory.

Then look at the push for universal basic income (UBI). I’ve though UBI is a great idea in the past. It seems humane: everybody gets enough to live on, and people can at last be free with nothing to complain about. No problem, right?

There is the sticky concern that UBI does not address equity concerns. I’m not going to write about that now.

What I’m thinking about now, just putting myself in the shoes of an arch-capitalist for once, is that giving everybody a budget for consumer goods paid out of general taxes changes the way capital is valued. Specifically, capital that is directed towards to provision of consumer products becomes higher-value with UBI, since it guarantees a greater income stream.

This analysis is perhaps neither here nor there, so to speak. But it’s the kind of thinking I’d like to do more of. I’m coming to the conclusion that a useful analysis of political classes has to be done with a solid understanding of economic supply chains, the human parts of them especially. This is not a matter of simple polarities or binaries but rather the analysis has to take the supply topology into account.

WannaCry as an example of the insecurity of legacy systems

CLTC’s Steve Weber and Betsy Cooper have written an Op-Ed about the recent WannaCry epidemic. The purpose of the article is clear: to argue that a possible future scenario CLTC developed in 2015, in which digital technologies become generally distrusted rather than trusted, is relevant and prescient. They then go on to elaborate on this scenario.

The problem with the Op-Ed is that the connection between WannaCry is spurious. Here’s how they make the connection:

The latest widespread ransomware attack, which has locked up computers in nearly 150 countries, has rightfully captured the world’s attention. But the focus shouldn’t be on the scale of the attack and the immediate harm it is causing, or even on the source of the software code that enabled it (a previous attack against the National Security Agency). What’s most important is that British doctors have reverted to pen and paper in the wake of the attacks. They’ve given up on insecure digital technologies in favor of secure but inconvenient analog ones.

This “back to analog” moment isn’t just a knee-jerk, stopgap reaction to a short-term problem. It’s a rational response to our increasingly insecure internet, and we are going to see more of it ahead.

If you look at the article that they link to from The Register, which is the only empirical evidence they use to make their case, it does indeed reference the use of pen and paper by doctors.

Doctors have been reduced to using pen and paper, and closing A&E to non-critical patients, amid the tech blackout. Ambulances have been redirected to other hospitals, and operations canceled.

There is a disconnect between what the article says and what Weber and Cooper are telling us. The article is quite clear that doctors are using pen and paper amid the tech blackout. Which is to say, because their computers are currently being locked up by ransomware, doctors are using pen and paper.

Does that mean that “They’ve given up on insecure digital technologies in favor of secure but inconvenient analog ones.”? No. It means that since they are waiting to be able to use their computers again, they have no other recourse but to use pen and paper. Does the evidence warrant the claim that “This “back to analog” moment isn’t just a knee-jerk, stopgap reaction to a short-term problem. It’s a rational response to our increasingly insecure internet, and we are going to see more of it ahead.” No, not at all.

In their eagerness to show the relevance of their scenario, Weber and Cooper rush say where the focus should be (on CLTC’s future scenario planning) that they ignore the specifics of WannaCry, most of which do not help their case. For example, there’s the issue that the vulnerability exploited by WannaCry had been publicly known for two months before the attack, and that Microsoft had already published a patch to the problem. The systems that were still vulnerability either did not apply the software update or were using an unsupported older version of Windows.

This paints a totally different picture of the problem than Weber and Cooper provide. It’s not that “new” internet infrastructure is insecure and “old” technologies are proven. Much of computing and the internet is already “old”. But there’s a life cycle to technology. “New” systems are more resilient (able to adapt to an attack or discovered vulnerability) and are smaller targets. Older legacy systems with a large installed based, like Windows 7, become more globally vulnerability if their weaknesses are discovered and not addressed. And if they are in widespread use, that presents a bigger target.

This isn’t just a problem for Windows. In this research paper, we show how similar principles are at work in the Python ecosystem. The riskiest projects are precisely those that are old, assumed to be secure, but no longer being actively maintained while the technical environment changes around them. The evidence of the WannaCry case further supports this view.

The GDPR and the future of the EU

In privacy scholarship and ‘big data’ engineering circles, much is being made about the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). It is probably the strongest regulation passed protecting personal data in a world of large-scale, global digital services. What makes it particularly fearsome is the extra-territoriality of its applicability. It applies to controllers and processors working in the EU whether or not the data processing is itself being done in the EU, and it applies processing of data whose subjects are in the EU whether or not the controller or processor is in the EU. In short, it protects the data of people in the EU, no matter where the organization using the data is.

This is interesting in light of the fact that the news is full of intimation that the EU might collapse with the result of the French election. Prediction markets currently favoring Macron, but he faces a strong contender in Le Pen, who is against the Eurozone.

The GDPR is scheduled to go into effect in 2018. I wonder what its jurisdiction will be once it goes into effect. A lot can happen between now and then.

A big, sincere THANK YOU to the anonymous reviewer who rejected my IC2S2 submission

I submitted an abstract to IC2S2 this year. It was a risky abstract so submit: I was trying to enter into a new field; the extended abstract length was maximum three pages; I had some sketches of an argument in mind that were far too large in scope and informed mainly by my dissatisfaction with other fields.

I got the most wonderful negative review from an anonymous reviewer. A careful dissection of my roughshod argument and firm pointers to literature (some of it quite old) where my naive intuitions had already been addressed. It was a brief and expertly written literature review of precisely the questions that I had been grasping at so poorly.

There have been moments in my brief research career where somebody has stepped in out of the blue and put be squarely on the right path. I can count them on one hand. This is one of them. I have enormous gratitude towards these people; my gratitude is not lessened by the anonymity of this reviewer. Likely this was a defining moment in my mental life. Thank you, wherever you are. You’ve set a high bar and one day I hope to pay that favor forward.