CLTC’s Steve Weber and Betsy Cooper have written an Op-Ed about the recent WannaCry epidemic. The purpose of the article is clear: to argue that a possible future scenario CLTC developed in 2015, in which digital technologies become generally distrusted rather than trusted, is relevant and prescient. They then go on to elaborate on this scenario.
The problem with the Op-Ed is that the connection between WannaCry is spurious. Here’s how they make the connection:
The latest widespread ransomware attack, which has locked up computers in nearly 150 countries, has rightfully captured the world’s attention. But the focus shouldn’t be on the scale of the attack and the immediate harm it is causing, or even on the source of the software code that enabled it (a previous attack against the National Security Agency). What’s most important is that British doctors have reverted to pen and paper in the wake of the attacks. They’ve given up on insecure digital technologies in favor of secure but inconvenient analog ones.
This “back to analog” moment isn’t just a knee-jerk, stopgap reaction to a short-term problem. It’s a rational response to our increasingly insecure internet, and we are going to see more of it ahead.
If you look at the article that they link to from The Register, which is the only empirical evidence they use to make their case, it does indeed reference the use of pen and paper by doctors.
Doctors have been reduced to using pen and paper, and closing A&E to non-critical patients, amid the tech blackout. Ambulances have been redirected to other hospitals, and operations canceled.
There is a disconnect between what the article says and what Weber and Cooper are telling us. The article is quite clear that doctors are using pen and paper amid the tech blackout. Which is to say, because their computers are currently being locked up by ransomware, doctors are using pen and paper.
Does that mean that “They’ve given up on insecure digital technologies in favor of secure but inconvenient analog ones.”? No. It means that since they are waiting to be able to use their computers again, they have no other recourse but to use pen and paper. Does the evidence warrant the claim that “This “back to analog” moment isn’t just a knee-jerk, stopgap reaction to a short-term problem. It’s a rational response to our increasingly insecure internet, and we are going to see more of it ahead.” No, not at all.
In their eagerness to show the relevance of their scenario, Weber and Cooper rush say where the focus should be (on CLTC’s future scenario planning) that they ignore the specifics of WannaCry, most of which do not help their case. For example, there’s the issue that the vulnerability exploited by WannaCry had been publicly known for two months before the attack, and that Microsoft had already published a patch to the problem. The systems that were still vulnerability either did not apply the software update or were using an unsupported older version of Windows.
This paints a totally different picture of the problem than Weber and Cooper provide. It’s not that “new” internet infrastructure is insecure and “old” technologies are proven. Much of computing and the internet is already “old”. But there’s a life cycle to technology. “New” systems are more resilient (able to adapt to an attack or discovered vulnerability) and are smaller targets. Older legacy systems with a large installed based, like Windows 7, become more globally vulnerability if their weaknesses are discovered and not addressed. And if they are in widespread use, that presents a bigger target.
This isn’t just a problem for Windows. In this research paper, we show how similar principles are at work in the Python ecosystem. The riskiest projects are precisely those that are old, assumed to be secure, but no longer being actively maintained while the technical environment changes around them. The evidence of the WannaCry case further supports this view.